Kamala Harris Vs. Donald Trump: Five Closest Races Outlined in Forecast

North Carolina is the closest race in the November election, according to election website FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model as of Friday.

According to the poll aggregator, Harris is currently 0.2 points ahead of Trump in the state, at 45.8 percent to his 45.6 percent. The vice president first overtook Trump in North Carolina on Thursday, per the website.

Trump had previously been narrowly leading Harris in North Carolina, which voted Republican in the last three presidential elections.

Although FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows the Democrat with a marginal lead, the pollster’s latest forecast, which takes into account polling averages and so-called “fundamentals” such as economic and political variables in the state, as well as how polls may change before election day, shows that the Republicans will secure a victory with a 0.4-point lead.

Georgia

North Carolina is followed by Georgia, where Trump is expected to secure a victory. According to the poll tracker, Trump is currently 0.5 points ahead in the state after he was ahead by 1.4 points on July 30, a week after Harris entered the race.

Polls conducted before Harris entered the race, between July 22 and July 24, suggested the former president was up by as much as 5 points in the state, and in a poll published by Insider Advantage on July 16, Trump held a 10-point lead among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup with Harris.

Despite having his lead cut by Harris, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Trump will secure a 0.6-point victory in Georgia, which Biden flipped to blue in 2020 after the state had voted Republican in the previous six presidential elections.

Nevada

The next closest race will be in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight, where Harris is currently 0.6 points ahead, on 45 percent to Trump’s 44.4 percent.

Nevada has voted for the Democrats in the last four presidential elections. But that looked poised to change before Harris entered the race, with Trump leading Biden by up to 20 points in all but two polls conducted in the state since the beginning of the year.

However, since Harris entered the race, multiple polls have shown Harris and Trump tied or Harris in the lead by between 2 and 7 points among likely voters in Nevada. However, other polls have shown Trump in the lead by between 1 and 5 points.

FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows that the Democrats are expected to win Nevada by 1 point.

Arizona and Pennsylvania

Arizona and Pennsylvania are also set to be close, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showing Harris is leading by 1.4 points in Arizona, while she is in the lead by 1.8 points in Pennsylvania. Polling in both states showed Trump with the lead in the days before and after Biden dropped out.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 after Trump had flipped it red for the first time in nearly three decades in 2016. Biden also won Arizona in 2020 after Trump won the state in 2016.

Both states are set to see another victory for the Democrats this year, according to FiveThirtyEight.

In Arizona, the Democrats will win by 0.8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, the Democrats are expected to win by a larger margin, according to the model, with a 1.2 percent lead.

Harris v. Trump Overall

Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows that Harris will secure the win in this year’s election, with 287 Electoral votes to Trump’s 251 votes, with Harris winning 58 times out of 100 to her opponent’s 41 times.

According to the poll tracker, she is currently ahead by 3.6 points nationally, on 47.2 percent to Trump’s 43.6 percent. It is her biggest lead in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker so far.