Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania for First Time

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania for the first time, according to a recent poll.

A New York Times/Siena College survey of 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania showed Harris leading the former president in the battleground state by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

In a survey conducted in July, in the weeks after the CNN debate that triggered calls for President Joe Biden to end his reelection campaign, the pollster showed Trump leading Harris in a hypothetical matchup in Pennsylvania by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

The August survey from NYT/Siena College—ranked by FiveThirtyEight as the most accurate pollster—is also the first one since Harris chose her 2024 running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was previously considered the favorite to be named Harris’ running mate. He was seen as a way for Harris to secure a win in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes make it the most crucial battleground state of the election.

Cary Coglianese, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, previously suggested that Harris may be taking a risk by choosing Walz as her running mate over Shapiro, as she wasn’t “putting all her chips on the table in Pennsylvania.” He added that the Keystone State is winnable for the Democrat even without Shapiro on the ticket.

“And I would fully expect that Shapiro will nevertheless be doing all he can to deliver Pennsylvania to the Harris-Walz campaign,” Coglianese told Newsweek.

Shapiro appeared onstage at a Harris campaign rally in Philadelphia on August 6, where the vice president introduced Walz as her running mate for the first time.

NYT/Siena College polls also showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in fellow “blue wall” states of Michigan and Wisconsin. All three of these battleground states were vital for Biden’s election victory over Trump in 2020.

When contacted for comment, Trump’s campaign team referred Newsweek to surveys conducted by Trafalgar Group, which is ranked 273rd on FiveThirtyEight’s list of 277 pollsters, that showed Trump beating Harris in Pennsylvania—45.9 percent to 44.4 percent—Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

Newsweek has contacted Harris’ team for comment via email.

While sharing the poll results, Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, said: “Harris has opened up leads of 4 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with strong support from women, younger voters, Blacks and those with a college education.

“Trump continues to be seen by voters as better on the economy and immigration but by much smaller margins than Trump had led Biden. Harris leads according to voters on abortion and protecting our democracy by wide margins.”

According to FiveThirtyEight’s average polling tracker, Harris is leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 45.5 percent to 44.4 percent.

The NYT/Siena College Pennsylvania poll was conducted from August 6 to 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.