But the greater the tension, the greater the chances that one side will make a deadly miscalculation, Mr. Maksad said, for example, by striking an unintended target or killing a larger number of enemy forces than planned, putting pressure on the other side to respond.
And some in Israel’s security establishment may believe that now is the time to strike Hezbollah, to ensure that the group can’t take the initiative against Israel, said Sima Shine, a former head of research for Israel’s intelligence agency.
“They say, ‘We made the mistake once with Hamas,’” assuming that the threat the group posed could be managed, she said.
But so far, Mr. Netanyahu has vetoed such proposals, according to American officials and others briefed on the discussions.
For now, both sides appear to be in a waiting game to see how the dynamics of Israel’s expected invasion of Gaza will play out.
