Democrats’ Must-Win Senate Seat in Doubt Even with Harris on Ballot: Poll

Democrats were given troubling news about a must-win Senate seat in Maryland: a poll showing that Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks are tied, despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum and name on the top of the ticket.

A Maryland win is considered crucial for Democratic hopes of retaining control of the Senate, which may be a tall order due to the 2024 election map being highly favorable to Republicans.

According to an AARP poll released on Tuesday, Hogan and Alsobrooks are each favored by 46 percent of likely voters in the state. The survey polled 1,258 likely voters between August 14-20 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. The same poll shows Harris crushing former President Donald Trump by 64 percent to 32 percent.

Hogan previously served as the heavily Democratic-leaning state’s governor from 2015 to 2023. He left office with a 77 percent approval rating—coming from what some deem “bipartisan, common sense solutions.” He’s touted for lowering taxes eight years in a row, leaving office with a record $5.5 billion in reserves, and economically turning around the state from 49th out of 50 to 6th by reducing health care premiums by 30 percent and investing in education, infrastructure and the environment.

The Democratic candidate for president has won in every Maryland election dating back to former President Bill Clinton’s win in 1992, including President Joe Biden’s defeat of Trump in the 2020 election with 65 percent of the vote, according to 270toWin.

According to the AARP poll, Hogan is preferred over Alsobrooks among voters aged 50-64, holding a 13-point advantage. Hogan leads by 10 points among all men and all voters aged 18-34. Independents prefer the Republican by a 23-point margin, while he enjoys a massive 57-point edge among swing voters over 50.

The biggest demographic advantage for Alsobrooks is among Black voters over 50, who prefer her by a margin of 52 percent. The Democrat also holds an 8-point advantage among all women and all voters aged 65 and over, while voters aged 35-49 prefer her by 13 points.

Newsweek has reached out for comment to the Hogan and Alsobrooks campaigns via email on Tuesday night.

Harris has experienced a wave of momentum since announcing her bid for the presidency after Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her on July 21. Biden’s decision came after several weeks of pressure to drop out following a dismal debate performance against Trump on June 27.

Recent national polls now show Harris leading Trump in several key battleground states, while also suggesting that she got a boost during and after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she officially accepted her party’s nomination last week.

Presidential polling for Maryland specifically has been limited, although Harris has held comfortable double-digit leads in all of the polls that have been conducted so far.

Polls for Maryland’s Senate race have also been limited, although the AARP poll appears to be an outlier among the polls that have been released. A Public Policy Polling survey released in June showed Alsobrooks with an 11-point advantage over the former governor, while surveys released in May showed her ahead by 9 and 10 points.

While Democrats currently hold razor-thin control of the chamber, most political observers expect Republicans to at least pick up a seat in deep-red West Virginia, where independent Senator Joe Manchin, who caucuses with Democrats, is not seeking reelection.