Colin Allred’s Chances of Beating Ted Cruz in Texas Senate Election

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is on track to secure reelection in November against either of his top-polling Democratic rivals, according to a new University of Houston poll.

The survey found that, in a straight fight between Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred, the leading Democratic candidate, the Republican incumbent would win by nine points. Alternatively, if Cruz faces Texas State Senator Roland Gutierrez, who is also running to be the Democratic nominee, he would secure victory by 10 points.

Newsweek contacted Senator Ted Cruz, Representative Colin Allred and Texas state Senator Roland Gutierrez via email or online enquiry form at 5:30 a.m. ET on Saturday. This article will be updated if any of the three wishes to comment.

The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,500 Texan registered voters online between January 11 and January 24. They found that, if the Democrats select Allred, a member of the House of Representatives and former NFL player who has launched a Senate run, as their candidate for Cruz’s seat, the GOP incumbent will win with 48 percent of the vote against 39 percent. Another 4 percent would go to Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown, and 9 percent undecided.

Alternatively, if the Democrats select Gutierrez, a current member of the Texas state Senate who has also announced his candidacy, Cruz will win by 48 percent against 38 percent, with 4 percent for Brown and 10 percent undecided.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Rep. Allred has a strong lead with 40 percent of the vote, ahead of state Sen. Gutierrez on 12 percent and with no other candidate polling more than 4 percent.

Notably in a contest between Cruz and Allred, the Republican has a 16-point lead with likely male voters, at 52 percent versus 36 percent, but only a two-point lead among likely female voters.

Cruz leads among likely white voters by 58 percent against 32 percent for Allred, though the Democrat leads 41 to 37 percent and 75 percent to 10 percent among Latino and Black voters respectively.

The poll also found Allred and Cruz are tied among likely voters with a four-year or post-graduate degree, while the Republican has a 58 percent versus 32 percent advantage for those whose highest level of education is a high-school degree or less.

The University of Houston poll is a substantial improvement for Cruz from an Emerson College survey released earlier this month, which found the Republican incumbent near level either both of his main Democratic challengers.

This survey of 1,315 registered voters in Texas, conducted between January 13 and 15, put Cruz on 42 percent against 40 percent for Allred in a hypothetical matchup between the two. Alternatively, if Gutierrez secures the Democratic candidacy, Cruz would only win by 41 percent against 40 percent.

Political tensions in Texas have surged in recent weeks over how to handle irregular migration. Governor Greg Abbott said the state is being subject to an “invasion” and invoked its “constitutional authority to defend and protect itself.” It came after the Supreme Court ruled federal agents can cut down razor wire placed along the Texas-Mexico border at Abbott’s instruction on January 22.

Speaking to Newsweek, Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texas Nationalist Movement, said the border crisis is increasing support for Texas breaking away from the Union, which he dubbed TEXIT.

Referring to a hypothetical independence referendum, Miller said: “The current border issue has done two things. First, it has turned a significant number of undecided voters into ‘yes’ voters. It seems to have also had the effect of activating a significant number of independent voters and is pushing them to support a vote on TEXIT.”