Atmospheric River Map Shows Which States Will Get Hit Hardest

A map published by the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center shows which states can expect a return to rainy weather next week, including those anticipating an “impactful” atmospheric river event.

Much of January has been dominated by bone-chilling temperatures and snow across the nation, bringing unusually high snowfall amounts to some areas, like parts of Texas and Nashville, Tennessee. The pattern is expected to change, and there is an above-average chance of precipitation for the western half of the United States beginning next week and lasting for several days.

States along the West Coast, including Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and the southwestern tip of Colorado, have the highest chance of rain during this period. The most affected area is expected to be Northern California, according to the NWS map.

“Confidence is growing of an impactful atmospheric river event moving southward along the West Coast January 30th through February 3rd,” the NWS Climate Prediction Center posted on X (formerly Twitter) with the map. “Following this event, the pattern will remain favorable for above normal precipitation through February 5th.”

Heavy precipitation from the atmospheric river is expected to pummel nearly the entire state of California from January 30 to February 3, as well as coastal Oregon and Washington. High winds will occur on the Washington coast and south along the California coast, and heavy snow is expected in north-central California and eastern California.

The storm follows two weaker atmospheric rivers, one of which began across much of the Pacific Northwest last Friday. A second atmospheric river followed on Sunday, dumping more rain across Northern California.

An atmospheric river is a “long, narrow region in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Last year, more than a dozen atmospheric rivers battered California, largely eliminating the state’s drought but posing problems such as flooding and mudslides.

NWS Weather Prediction Center meteorologist David Roth told Newsweek it’s uncertain how much rain is expected to fall as a result of the incoming atmospheric river, given that the forecast is still a week out.

In a separate post, the NWS Climate Prediction Center shared a map showing that the eastern half of the U.S. would have an above-normal precipitation outlook in the week leading up to the atmospheric river, at the end of the month. The highest chance of rain is in the Midwest and the South, including Texas and Louisiana. During that same time, the West Coast is expected to have below-average precipitation.

The incoming patterns are on par with what meteorologists expected would happen this winter because of El Niño, one of two climate patterns that greatly affect the planet’s weather. NOAA anticipated that El Niño would be historically strong, which had many meteorologists forecasting a wet winter in California and the Southwest.