Atlanta Falcons 2024 Futures Odds: Falcons Heavy Favorites in NFC South

After making the playoffs six times in 10 seasons from 2008 through 2017, the Atlanta Falcons posted losing records in each of the past six seasons.

Talented young offensive weapons made the Falcons a tempting pick in the very winnable NFC South the last two years.

But QBs Marcus Mariota (5-8 as the starter in 2022) and Desmond Ridder (8-9 in 17 starts the last two years) were unable to win more than seven games in either 2022 or 2023.

In fact, including Matt Ryan’s final four seasons in Atlanta (2018-2021), this franchise has won exactly seven games in all but one of the last six years. Following a third consecutive 7-10 finish in 2023, the Falcons responded with changes at head coach and quarterback.

Oddsmakers see Atlanta as the best team in the NFC South following those moves.

Raheem Morris was named head coach of the Falcons back in January after spending the last three seasons as the Rams’ defensive coordinator, and 36-year-old Kirk Cousins chose Atlanta in free agency.

There are questions about how Cousins will fare in his 13th season in the NFL as he comes back from a torn Achilles, but if he’s healthy, Atlanta could contend in the NFC.

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Futures Odds

The list of teams that oddsmakers like more than the Falcons to win the NFC is short.

Only the 49ers, Lions, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys enter 2024 with shorter odds to represent this conference in Super Bowl 59. The Falcons are also heavily favored in the NFC South over Tampa Bay, which won that division each of the last three years.

That makes sense after the Falcons pulled off the biggest upgrade at quarterback of any team in the NFL this offseason* (unless Caleb Williams is somehow even more impactful than anticipated in Chicago.)

But it is fair to ask whether oddsmakers are overrating the Falcons — and/or underrating the Buccaneers in the NFC South — given that this team was just No. 19 in opponent-adjusted DVOA in 2022 and No. 28 in 2023.

*Cousins returning to form is no guarantee, but to avoid belaboring the point any more than we already have, this is the last time that we’ll attach the “if he’s healthy” clause to Cousins’ potential impact this season.

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Betting Outlook

Does Kirk Cousins make the Falcons unstoppable?

• PFF OL Unit Ranking: No. 6
• PFF Receiving Unit (WRs/TEs) Ranking: No. 13
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: No. 5

The offensive performance by Atlanta in 2023 was interesting.

The Falcons boasted one of the best rookies in the league. Former Texas Longhorn RB Bijan Robinson finished fifth in the vote for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year following a big year as both a runner and a receiver.

In addition, second-year WR Drake London continued to look like a future star (over 13 yards per catch on 69 receptions) despite poor QB play by Ridder, and TE Kyle Pitts hauled in 53 catches while splitting snaps with Jonnu Smith.

But despite all the individual production, the Falcons averaged just 18.9 points per game (26th-best in the NFL), and DVOA ranked this offense as the league’s 24th-best.

This year, the offensive line — which returns all five starters from a year ago — is stout enough, and Cousins is a good enough quarterback, that maybe it really is as simple as, “Robinson + London + Pitts + Cousins = an elite offense.”

That’s especially true if this O-line featuring three former first-round picks, which PFF ranks as one of the best in the league, is as good as advertised.

But while the potential for this offense is undeniable, it will be interesting to see if everything comes together as quickly and seamlessly as expected.

Atlanta is, after all, adjusting to a new coaching staff and a quarterback who is proven but is also A) coming off a torn Achilles just 10 months ago and B) acclimating to a new offense after six seasons in Minnesota.

Late-summer additions fortify Atlanta defense

• PFF DL Unit Ranking: No. 28
• PFF Linebacker Ranking: No. 24
• PFF Secondary Unit Ranking: No. 22

*PFF’s unit rankings are based on how the Atlanta D looked before it acquired safety Justin Simmons and LB Matthew Judon during training camp.

The Atlanta defense was the NFL’s second-worst in 2022, according to DVOA, and it improved only slightly (to No. 24) a year ago. But thanks to the hire of the defensive-minded Morris as head coach and two key personnel moves in August, the Falcons D should be much better this season.

Before Atlanta traded with New England for four-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon in mid-August, this team’s front seven looked like a major weakness.

The Falcons sacked opposing QBs just 42 times in 2023, and they lost their two most productive pass-rushers from a year ago, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, this offseason. So the deal for Judon, who went to four straight Pro Bowls from 2018-22, was massive for this team, especially after rookie third-round EDGE Bralen Trice suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this preseason.

The signing of Simmons, a second-team All-Pro safety each of the last three seasons, looks like a case of a strength becoming that much stronger. Even without Simmons, the Falcons boasted two studs in the secondary in safety Jessie Bates III and corner A.J. Terrell. With Simmons in the mix, the Falcons look rock-solid in the defensive backfield.

The addition of Judon improves the front seven, but the Falcons will still need their other players up front to level up to contend in the NFC playoffs.

Overall, though, Atlanta’s defense has the look of a unit that will be able to do the most important thing in the NFL in 2024, which is stop the pass.

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Best Bets

• Falcons win total over: 9.5 (best odds: -135 at DraftKings)
• Falcons to win NFC (best odds: +1300 at DraftKings)

Whether you’re bullish on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in the NFC South or not, the Falcons just do not offer a ton of value to win this division at minus odds.

Given how high the ceiling for this team is — especially if Cousins plays as well as he did before tearing his Achilles last October — the more tempting futures plays on the Falcons include them going over their modest win total of 9.5 and/or making a run in the NFC.

Obviously, Over 9.5 Wins would be the safe play.

As for Atlanta to win the NFC at +1300, yes, it’s a massive swing.

But it’s a flier that’s at least worth considering in a conference where the top QBs (Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott) are beatable — or at least more beatable in the playoffs than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.

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