ODI World Cup: Why New Zealand’s must-win game against Sri Lanka is the mother of all must-win games

It is a game that even hosts India, who are currently stationed in Bangalore, will watch with plenty of interest as this could potentially decide who they would face in the semi-final and where. With India guaranteed of a top spot in the table, should New Zealand win here, these two teams will face-off at the Wankhede Stadium in a repeat of the 2019 World Cup semi-final. Of course, there is still a possibility of India facing Pakistan at the Eden Gardens, but for that a lot depends on what unfolds in Bangalore on Thursday.

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Mother of must-win games

This in essence has become the mother of all must-wins games that is ahead of us over the next 72 hours. For a tournament that appeared to have spotted the four semi-finalists at the mid-way stage, the resurgence of Australia, the fluctuating form of Pakistan, the giant-killing spree of Afghanistan have added more drama, apart from New Zealand’s own trouble when it comes to closing down matches. Since their last win over Afghanistan in Chennai, they have gone winless in next four matches, which includes a close defeat at the hands of Australia. In the last match here, they appeared to get back on track, posting a mammoth 401 on board, before a rain-curtailed contest ended up working in favour of Pakistan.

As New Zealand prepare for another must-win, they are once again under the mercy of rain gods. There is a 70 percent chance of rain predicted between 2-7 pm in Bangalore, and on the eve of the match, it remained gloomy throughout New Zealand’s training session. They even had to pause briefly because of a slight drizzle, which could be a common occurrence on Thursday.

Bengaluru: Sri Lanka players during a practice session ahead of the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup match against New Zealand at Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru, Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023. (PTI Photo/Shailendra Bhojak)

“There are lots of things that we can’t control and the weather is one of those. There might be some rain, there may be a thought in the back of your mind, but at the end of the day, our focus will be on the cricket that we want to play and trying to put all our focus and energy into that. That gives us the best chance of putting out a good performance. And so that’ll be what we try and do,” New Zealand captain Kane Williamson said.

Despite their losses, there is a reason why Williamson and New Zealand believe they still have the situation under control. Unlike England or Sri Lanka, their opponents on Thursday, or even for that matter Pakistan, New Zealand haven’t had to deal with issues with form. It is only the loss of key personnel that has cost them a cutting edge. But for the first time since their match Bangladesh, New Zealand have all 15 players available for Thursday, including Lockie Ferguson, whose pace could be handy at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, where huge totals have been the norm. Thanks to the terrific start they had, where they defeated England, the Netherlands, Bangladesh and Afghanistan by huge margins, even the four successive losses haven’t hampered their NRR much.

“We did start off well in terms of those results, but there were also some really close games and ones that we lost. I think if we look at cricket as a whole, there has been a lot of good cricket and we’ve seen a lot of teams here playing really good cricket and coming into it we knew that anybody can beat anybody and we’ve certainly seen that,” Williamson said.

While overcoming Sri Lanka at the venue won’t be an issue, New Zealand’s biggest challenge will be how they adapt to the conditions if rain makes it a shortened contest. Against Pakistan, they appeared a bit taken aback by their approach, who came out treating the game as a 20-over fixture. Worse, the Kiwis complicated it by playing an extra spinner in Ish Sodhi, who was taken apart by Fakhar Zaman and Babar Azam. Should this fixture too be curtailed by rain, Sri Lanka – who too need a win to make it to the Champions Trophy – will also be in with a genuine chance as they have stroke-makers who can make the most out of the small boundaries.

Super Three

Beginning Thursday, three matches will shape the makeup of the World Cup moving forward. Throw in the Champions Trophy qualifications, the tournament is getting heated up. Here is a look at what is at stake in these three matches…

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka @ Bangalore on Thursday

With a healthy run-rate (NRR), a win against Sri Lanka will put them in pole position to qualify. Even if Afghanistan and Pakistan win their respective matches, they need to win big to leapfrog the Kiwis. If the game is washed out or Kiwis end up losing, then both Afghanistan and Pakistan have to lose for NZ to progress. For Sri Lanka, a win here will put them in touching distance of making the Champions Trophy as they have a better NRR than England.

South Africa vs Afghanistan @ Ahmedabad on Friday

This is a must-win game for Afghanistan. With the lowest NRR among the three teams in fray for the lone semi-final spot, they need a huge win to pip both New Zealand and Pakistan. A loss for Afghanistan will surely send them out. For South Africa, who have already made it to the knockouts, it is inconsequential as irrespective of whether they win or not, they will face Australia in the semi-final.

Pakistan vs England @ Kolkata on Saturday

The advantage for Pakistan is they are scheduled to play last. So by the time they take the field at Eden Gardens they will know what is needed on the day to make it to the semi-finals. Even if both New Zealand and Afghanistan win, all that Pakistan need to do, apart from beating England, is to keep an eye on NRR. If NZ and Afghanistan lose, a win will set up a dream semi-final clash with India at the Eden Gardens. But, if NZ win, they need to post a big win over England, who themselves are targeting a Champions Trophy berth.